Possible scenario
Coalition Response Expands
27% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, France, and Gulf partners expand maritime security operations from monitoring to escorted transit and mine clearance. The most likely version is defensive, but limited strikes become plausible if IRGC units are observed laying new mines.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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