Possible scenario
One-Time Incentive Surge
28% Chance
The record class is driven by temporary bonuses, accelerated processing, and delayed-entry candidates who were already in the pipeline. Recruiting remains healthier than in 2022-2023, but the spike does not translate into a structurally higher accession rate.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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