Possible scenario
Managed Negotiation Track
40% Chance
The White House keeps denying that it is forcing surrender while continuing to push Kyiv toward negotiations. Ukraine accepts talks only if sovereignty language and European security guarantees remain on the table, making this the most likely near-term path.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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