Possible scenario
Aid Leverage Intensifies
25% Chance
Trump's denial does not end the dispute, and the administration uses weapons deliveries, intelligence sharing or financing terms to force quicker talks. This would deepen mistrust between Washington and Kyiv and raise concern among NATO allies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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