Possible scenario
Conditional Diplomacy Persists
20% Chance
Riyadh keeps relations warm but conditions serious capital on minority protections, constitutional steps, counterterrorism guarantees, and continued U.S. sanctions relief. This outcome fits Saudi Arabia’s preference for influence without assuming open-ended fiscal or reputational risk.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.