Possible scenario
Managed Security Normalization
45% Chance
The Trump administration uses case-by-case reviews to normalize limited security ties with Syria’s transitional government while avoiding blanket rearmament. Early approvals focus on controlled, defensive, or non-lethal systems tied to border security, counter-ISIS operations, and protection of aid corridors.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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