Possible scenario
Hezbollah Resists Gradually
20% Chance
Hezbollah refuses substantive disarmament while keeping its response below the threshold of full escalation. Lebanese leaders stall, Israel maintains military readiness, and Jordan focuses on preventing spillover into its territory and airspace.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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