Possible scenario
Vance Holds Lead
42% Chance
Trump's refusal is treated as tactical rather than a permanent break, and JD Vance remains the best-known successor to the Trump coalition. Conservative media figures and Senate allies largely stay with Vance while waiting for Trump to clarify his position.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.