Possible scenario
Rubio Gains Ground
18% Chance
Trump's refusal is read as a signal that Marco Rubio remains a serious alternative for the 2028 Republican nomination. Donors and foreign-policy hawks begin shifting attention toward Rubio as a more conventional national candidate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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