Possible scenario
Rates Stay Elevated
42% Chance
The most likely path is that tanker scarcity persists as sanctioned Russian and Iranian flows, Red Sea diversions and limited modern VLCC availability keep charter rates historically high. Immediate-delivery tonnage remains more valuable than newbuilds that cannot arrive for several years.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- DHT+4.1%
- FRO+3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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