Possible scenario
Regional Retaliation Cycle
20% Chance
Saudi Arabia and partners could retaliate against Houthi launch infrastructure in Yemen, turning the oil-field damage into a broader military exchange. The key market risk is not just lost Saudi barrels, but the possibility of renewed attacks on tankers, airports, and Gulf energy assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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