Possible scenario
Contained Ghawar Outage
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Houthi-linked strikes caused real but localized damage inside the Ghawar complex, extending the smoke and thermal anomalies into a second day. Saudi Aramco contains the fires, but inspection and safety shutdowns keep a meaningful amount of crude capacity offline for days to weeks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.