Possible scenario
Talks Stall Again
30% Chance
The rejection could reflect a genuine breakdown after a brief technical-stage opening. The US keeps export pressure in place while both sides avoid steps that would threaten Strait of Hormuz shipping.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Tickers
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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