Possible scenario
Vote Count Contested
20% Chance
Close races and fraud claims push Bosnia into a disputed count, especially in Republika Srpska and contested presidency seats. The donor pledge becomes politicized, with rival parties accusing each other of trading sovereignty for outside financial backing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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