Possible scenario
Nationalists Force Gridlock
30% Chance
Milorad Dodik and the SNSD use the election-day funding pledge as evidence of U.S. interference and harden their position after the vote. Bosnia avoids immediate violence, but state-level decision-making slows as Republika Srpska officials threaten vetoes and legal challenges.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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