Measured Refill Continues

The most likely path is that the Department of Energy keeps refilling the SPR slowly, constrained by crude prices, salt-cavern maintenance, and congressional appropriations. Inventories remain near multi-decade lows, but the market treats the headline as confirmation of an already-known supply-security issue rather than a fresh shock.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.