Possible scenario
Talarico Upset Win
38% Chance
James Talarico defeats Paxton by consolidating Democratic turnout and winning enough college-educated suburban voters who are uneasy with Paxton's legal and ethical baggage. This would be treated as a notable Texas upset and a negative signal for Trump-backed candidates in competitive statewide races.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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