Possible scenario
Recount Legal Fight
14% Chance
The race lands inside recount territory, with both campaigns contesting ballots in large counties and rural strongholds. This is plausible given Paxton's improving odds and the polarized electorate, but it is less likely than a clear win by either candidate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.