Possible scenario
Paxton Comeback Win
40% Chance
Ken Paxton converts the Trump and Vance campaign blitz into a narrow but clear general-election victory over James Talarico. This outcome aligns with the current 40% odds signal and Texas's Republican lean, though Paxton's controversies keep the race closer than a generic GOP contest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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