Possible scenario
Damage Contained
45% Chance
Becerra’s campaign provides documents and a narrow explanation that the $12 arrival story was shorthand for a broader family migration narrative, not a literal claim about his father’s birthplace. The controversy dents message discipline but does not fundamentally change an 18-point polling lead.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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