Possible scenario
Russian Share Erodes
18% Chance
The Uzbek order becomes part of a broader post-2022 pattern in which Russian weapons lose appeal because of sanctions, component shortages, and battlefield reputational damage. China and selected non-Russian suppliers gain export opportunities in countries that historically bought Soviet or Russian systems.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.