Possible scenario
Deal Proceeds Smoothly
45% Chance
Uzbekistan moves ahead with the J-10CE purchase without major diplomatic disruption, using the aircraft to modernize an air force still reliant on Soviet-era platforms. China gains a visible but still limited defense foothold in Central Asia as Russia remains constrained by sanctions and war-related production needs.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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