Possible scenario
Western Deterrent Response
25% Chance
Western governments interpret the warning as an attempt to normalize threats against diplomats and respond with coordinated security measures. The response is mainly defensive, but it increases the visibility of NATO involvement in Ukraine’s air defense and intelligence support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.