Possible scenario
Major Kyiv Strike
35% Chance
Moscow follows the warning with a large missile and drone barrage against Kyiv, focused on government, intelligence, energy, and logistics targets. Western embassies accelerate evacuations, but Russia tries to avoid confirmed direct hits on foreign diplomatic compounds to limit NATO escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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