Possible scenario
Coercive Warning Holds
30% Chance
The warning functions mainly as psychological pressure to push Western governments out of Kyiv and signal that Russia can escalate at will. Strikes continue elsewhere, but Moscow avoids an immediate dramatic attack on the capital’s diplomatic zone.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.