Possible scenario
U.S. Resupply Deal
40% Chance
The most likely path is a limited U.S.-led package of Patriot interceptors after Zelensky's meeting with Trump. Washington can announce a politically visible tranche while relying on European backfill and new production to avoid fully depleting U.S. stocks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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