Possible scenario
Sanctions Pushback Returns
20% Chance
The landing may trigger criticism in Washington that Iraq is creating a loophole around Iranian aviation sanctions. The US could keep the waiver but impose tighter reporting, or threaten suspension if flights benefit sanctioned Iranian entities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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