Possible scenario
Regional Reopening Expands
25% Chance
A modest expansion of aviation links follows if the first Iraqi Airways flight proceeds without sanctions or security complications. Baghdad may use the precedent to normalize religious and commercial travel while avoiding direct use of sanctioned Iranian operators.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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