Possible scenario
Limited Waiver Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington, Baghdad, and Tehran keep the narrow exemption in place for Iraqi-operated flights while Iranian carriers remain constrained. This preserves a symbolic reopening without materially weakening the broader US sanctions architecture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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