Possible scenario
Limited Community Spread
25% Chance
Authorities find a small number of infections outside the immediate household, likely among health workers, visitors or contacts missed in the first quarantine round. The outbreak remains manageable but forces Kenya to widen surveillance in Nairobi and nearby counties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Healthcare +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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