Possible scenario
Household Cluster Contained
52% Chance
Kenya's second case remains within the known family cluster of the first patient, and the Ministry of Health, WHO and Africa CDC complete contact tracing without evidence of broader transmission. This is the most likely path because Ebola usually requires direct contact with bodily fluids and the second case was already a known high-risk contact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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