Possible scenario
Narrow Truce Agreed
30% Chance
Russia and Ukraine reach a limited reciprocal halt on attacks against power plants, refineries, substations and port-energy infrastructure. The agreement is narrow, fragile and likely mediated by Turkey or the UN, but it avoids major sanctions relief and lowers near-term winter-energy risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.7%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.