Possible scenario
Limited Relief Granted
18% Chance
Western governments do not lift core sanctions but consider technical carveouts tied to a verified halt on energy strikes. Any relief is likely limited to maintenance, payments, shipping insurance, nuclear fuel, food or fertilizer channels rather than a broad rollback of oil or banking restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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