Possible scenario
Demand Is Rejected
38% Chance
The United States, European Union and G7 partners refuse to trade sanctions relief for a narrow energy-infrastructure truce, arguing Moscow would gain leverage without ending the war. Ukraine keeps insisting that any halt must be reciprocal and verifiable, while Russia continues to link restraint to sanctions concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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