Possible scenario
Preliminary Review
30% Chance
The CFTC does not initially dispute Kalshi's statement publicly but begins a preliminary fact-finding review of the identical-order allegations. This outcome is plausible because regulators can examine market activity informally before deciding whether to authorize an enforcement investigation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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