Possible scenario
Formal Enforcement
15% Chance
Contrary to Kalshi's denial, the CFTC later opens or confirms a formal investigation into whether certain event-contract trades were wash trades. This would be a material setback for Kalshi because it would connect market-integrity concerns to the already contentious prediction-market rulemaking debate.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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