Possible scenario
Denial Holds
45% Chance
Kalshi's denial proves broadly accurate: the CFTC has not opened a formal investigation into wash trading on the exchange. The episode becomes a reputational issue rather than a regulatory enforcement event, with attention shifting back to pending CFTC rulemaking on event contracts.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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