Possible scenario
Export Controls Tighten
22% Chance
U.S. lawmakers use DeepSeek's funding success and earlier R1 market shock as evidence that existing restrictions failed to slow Chinese AI. Washington and allies respond with tighter chip, cloud-compute, and model-weight access controls aimed at Chinese frontier-AI firms.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Business Services -0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA-4.0%
- AMD-2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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