Possible scenario
Major Regional Campaign
22% Chance
Trump authorizes a broader campaign with Israel and Gulf partners against Iranian missile, drone, naval, and command targets. This is less likely than a limited strike but remains a serious risk because the scale of shipping attacks and Iran's nuclear advances raise pressure for a decisive response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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