Possible scenario
Limited US Strikes
40% Chance
Trump authorizes a limited military response against IRGC Navy boats, coastal radar, drones, or missile sites tied to the Hormuz attacks. This is the most likely path because it signals deterrence without immediately committing the United States to a broad war with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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