Possible scenario
Trade Politics Reshape
15% Chance
The energy package becomes linked to domestic-content rules, the 15% tariff framework and U.S. labor demands. This does not necessarily kill the deal, but it changes who captures the order book and delays some Korean supplier participation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.