Possible scenario
Trump Removes Her
23% Chance
Trump concludes that the controversy is becoming a distraction and moves to end it by removing Guilfoyle from the Athens post. The administration seeks to frame the change as orderly rather than disciplinary, especially because Greece remains an important NATO and energy partner.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.