Possible scenario
Survives With Guardrails
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Trump decides not to immediately remove Kimberly Guilfoyle, using John Konrad's defense and supportive Greece-related business voices as political cover. The White House and State Department impose tighter ethics controls to contain the controversy without conceding wrongdoing.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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