Possible scenario
Narrow Ossoff Hold
20% Chance
Ossoff wins, but by a much smaller margin than the forecast implied. The result may reflect late Republican consolidation, weaker Democratic rural turnout, or higher-than-expected Collins support among Trump-aligned voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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