Possible scenario
Sanctions Become Decisive
27% Chance
Merz’s statement helps build the case that sanctions are materially weakening Russia’s ability to finance the war. The EU and G7 respond by tightening enforcement on energy, shipping, finance, and sanctions circumvention.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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