Possible scenario
Russia Retaliates
20% Chance
If Moscow concludes sanctions are becoming strategically dangerous, it may retaliate through hybrid operations, energy pressure, or a new mobilization signal. This path keeps the war escalatory even if Russia’s domestic economy is visibly strained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.1%
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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