Possible scenario
Russia Absorbs Strain
38% Chance
Russia’s economy remains under heavy pressure, but the Kremlin uses capital controls, fiscal transfers, and defense procurement to prevent an acute financial break. Merz’s assessment proves broadly accurate on stress, but not enough to force near-term policy change in Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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