Possible scenario
Merchant GPU Reset
24% Chance
Microsoft's multi-gigawatt Maia deployment becomes a reference case for other hyperscalers seeking to reduce dependency on merchant accelerators. The largest market effect is a repricing of Nvidia and AMD growth assumptions rather than a broad macro shock.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- AMD-2.5%
- NVDA-2.3%
- MSFT+2.2%
- AVGO+1.7%
- MRVL+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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