Possible scenario
Talks Resume Cautiously
45% Chance
Qatar succeeds in getting U.S. and Iranian envoys back into indirect talks, most likely in Doha with Oman and the EU kept informed. The first phase focuses on de-escalation language, frozen Iranian funds, and limits on further Israeli-Iranian exchanges rather than a full nuclear settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.9%
- Energy -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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