Possible scenario
Renewed Disruption
21% Chance
Iran-aligned forces or direct Iranian military action disrupt Saudi export infrastructure or Hormuz transit after the temporary improvement. This remains a substantial risk because the war is ongoing and recent pipeline and Hormuz incidents show the export system is still vulnerable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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